咸阳智慧气象案例在气象干部培训中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

谢在发  仇娜  范承 《陕西气象》2019,(4):55-57

在案例教学理论研究的基础上,以陕西省气象干部培训学院为例,从省级气象培训机构案例教学现状出发,结合成人教育培训特点,通过专家访谈、文献分析等方法对咸阳智慧气象案例内容进行了总结,并对案例的教学实施流程进行了分析和设计。指出教学应用时,除讲授咸阳智慧气象案例文本外,还可通过头脑风暴法、四副眼镜法等研讨方式启发学员思维,达到预期的教学效果。建议将此案例应用于气象干部综合素质和业务能力提升类培训班中。  相似文献   

高铁对中国城市可达性格局的影响分析   总被引：10，自引：6，他引：4  

钟业喜  黄洁  文玉钊 《地理科学》2015,(4):387-395

基于列车时刻表数据,以地级城市为研究对象,通过提取两两中心城市间的最短交通时间,以平均可达性为度量指标,测算了全国31个中心城市的可达性水平,分析了高铁对中心城市可达性格局的影响。依据中心城市到全国地级城市的最短交通时间提取全国31个中心城市的一日交流圈范围,分析了中心城市的高铁效应,并选择北京、上海、广州、武汉、重庆5个中心城市作为典型案例,分析和探讨一日交流圈空间格局变化的影响因素。结果表明:1中心城市可达性水平与城市的空间区位及城市的对外交通条件关联密切;2高铁网络的发展使中心城市的可达性水平有所提升,受城市所处的空间区位及高铁建设条件的影响,不同城市的可达性改善程度存在差距;3高铁对中心城市一日交流圈范围拓展的影响显著且呈东中西差异分布,中心城市一日交流圈覆盖的地级市数量增加,在城市密集地区,地级市被叠加覆盖的次数增长;4中心城市一日交流圈的拓展与高铁线路布局走向一致,优越的中心地理位置有利于中心城市交流圈范围的扩大,地形、水域等地理障碍则会限制城市交流圈在不同方向上的拓展;5高铁网络的发展对改善城市可达性的作用正逐渐赶超城市空间区位对城市可达性水平的影响。  相似文献   

新疆西准噶尔苏云河钼矿床含矿岩体地球化学和年代学   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

钟世华  申萍  潘鸿迪  郑国平  鄢瑜宏  李晶 《矿床地质》2015,34(1):39-62

苏云河钼矿床位于新疆西准噶尔巴尔鲁克山西段,容矿岩石为二长花岗岩和二长花岗斑岩。这些花岗岩具有类似的地球化学特征:富集Rb、Th、U和LREE,相对亏损Ba、P、Ti,属于高钾钙碱性I型花岗岩系列,局部经历过强烈的分离结晶作用。LA-ICPMS锆石U-Pb定年结果显示苏云河钼矿区的成岩年龄为309.3~310.2 Ma,这表明与成矿有关的岩浆活动发生于晚石炭世。黑云母的Ti温度计表明Ⅰ号和Ⅲ号岩体的结晶温度相近,为695~728℃;而Ⅱ号岩体的结晶温度较低,为642~668℃。同时根据角闪石-斜长石压力计获得Ⅰ号和Ⅲ号岩体的结晶压力为(3.0~3.9)×108Pa。综合地球化学研究表明,苏云河钼矿区3个岩体均形成于岛弧环境。此外,以苏云河钼矿床为代表的巴尔鲁克山成矿带与哈萨克斯坦境内的巴尔喀什成矿带在岩石地球化学、成岩成矿时代等方面具有许多类似的特点,表明巴尔鲁克山成矿带可能是巴尔喀什成矿带在中国境内的延伸。  相似文献   

福建省紫金山矿田龙江亭矿床地质和成矿流体特征及成因意义   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈静  陈衍景  钟军  孙艺  祁进平  李晶 《矿床地质》2015,34(1):98-118

龙江亭矿床地处福建省紫金山矿田的西南部,矿体受北西向断裂控制,产于燕山早期中细粒花岗岩中。含矿岩体整体遭受硅化-绢云母化-伊利石化-蒙脱石化,浅部为强硅化-迪开石化,深部保留有钾化;后期蚀变主要分布在地表,为硅化-高岭土化和褐铁矿化,偶见萤石化、重晶石化、石膏化。矿物组合和穿插关系显示,成矿前为无矿石英脉;成矿期脉体矿物组合为石英-绢云母-黄铁矿-铜硫化物;成矿后脉体矿物组合为石英-方解石±石膏。根据矿石组构和铜硫化物类型,成矿期脉体可细分为3个亚类或阶段:早阶段为黄铁矿-黄铜矿组合,浸染状和网脉浸染状构造,见于矿体深部;中阶段为黄铁矿-黄铜矿-斑铜矿-硫砷铜矿组合,具梳状、胶状或皮壳状构造,见于矿体中部;晚阶段为蓝辉铜矿-铜蓝组合,浸染状或晶簇构造,见于浅部坑道和地表。早阶段脉体矿物含大量富液相包裹体,少量富气相包裹体,均一温度为262~403℃,w(Na Cleq)介于0.2%~18.6%,显示中-高温热液的特征;中阶段脉体中的包裹体几乎全部均一到液相,完全均一温度为201~302℃,峰值为250℃,w(Na Cleq)介于0.2%~10.1%,总体显示中-低温热液的特征;晚阶段包裹体全部均一到液相,均一温度为117~250℃,w(Na Cleq)介于0.4%~9.5%之间,表现出低温、低盐度大气降水热液的特征。根据蚀变类型确定成矿期logf(O2)=-42~-38,p H值=3~5;根据金属矿物组合估算出中阶段logf(S2)=-9±,晚阶段logf(S2)=-6.5±。龙江亭矿床硫逸度-温度变化规律不同于世界上其他岩浆-流体成矿系统,可能经历了2次成矿事件,后期的高硫型浅成低温热液成矿作用叠加在早期的斑岩型矿床之上,一方面造成了复杂多样的蚀变类型、矿物组合和矿石组构,另一方面继承、残留了斑岩型矿床的特征。因此,其属于叠合成因的斑岩型-浅成低温热液型矿床,而非斑岩型与浅成低温热液型之间的过渡。  相似文献   

2014年中国气候概况   总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2  

侯威  邹旭凯  王朋岭  叶殿秀  周兵  黄大鹏  李莹  赵琳  王有民  朱晓金  赵珊珊  王阳  钟海玲 《气象》2015,41(4):480-488

2014年,全国平均气温较常年偏高0.5℃,与1999年并列为1961年以来第六暖年;四季气温均偏高。全国平均降水量636.2 mm,接近常年,比2013年偏少3%;降水时空分布不均,辽宁、北京和河北偏少明显,冬、春、夏三季降水量均接近常年同期,秋季偏多。华南前汛期开始早、雨量多;西南雨季开始晚、结束早、雨量少;梅雨区降水量南多北少,江淮出现空梅;华北雨季不明显,出现空汛;华西秋雨开始早、结束晚、雨量多。夏季副热带高压脊线位置偏南,南海夏季风爆发晚,东亚夏季风强度略偏弱。2014年,我国气候属正常年景,极端天气气候事件少于2013年,暴雨洪涝、干旱等灾害偏轻,因灾造成死亡人数和受灾面积明显偏少,气象灾害属于偏轻年份。  相似文献   

一种改进的数值预报降水偏差订正方法及应用   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

孙靖  程光光  张小玲 《应用气象学报》2015,26(2):173-184

对传统的消除偏差法进行改进,形成分等级消除偏差法,并使用混合训练期和60 d滑动训练期方案分别对2012年6—8月ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting) 模式夏季1~5 d的降水预报进行订正试验。为了尽可能符合中国东部夏季降水具有移动性及多种时间尺度变化的特点,混合训练期以预报期前30 d与预报期前一年同日的前后各15 d组成。结果表明:在使用分等级消除偏差法的基础上,相比ECMWF模式降水预报,两种训练期方案的订正结果几乎对各个阈值的ETS评分均有一定提高,特别是对25 mm以上降水预报评分的提高幅度,混合训练期方案的订正结果明显高于60 d滑动训练期方案;在区域性强降水预报的订正中,混合训练期方案优势更为明显。另外,通过分析两种训练期方案的预报偏差发现,分等级订正是此次消除偏差订正试验中提高强降水预报评分的关键,选择合适的训练期可以增加评分提高的幅度。由于上述试验使用的ECMWF模式预报和站点实况均是业务上常用数据,因此,该方法具有一定的业务应用价值。  相似文献   

THE LIMITATION OF CLOUD-BASE MASS FLUX IN CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION AND ITS APPLICATION IN A HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL     

徐道生  陈子通  钟水新  温焰军  谢东东 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(S1):11-22

A large area of unrealized precipitation is produced with the standard convective parameterization scheme in a high-resolution model, while subgrid-scale convection that cannot be explicitly resolved is omitted without convective parameterization. A modified version of the convection scheme with limited mass flux at cloud base is introduced into a south-China regional high-resolution model to alleviate these problems. A strong convection case and a weak convection case are selected to analyze the influence of limited cloud-base mass flux on precipitation forecast. The sensitivity of different limitation on mass flux at cloud base is also discussed. It is found that using instability energy closure for Simplified Arakawa- Schubert Scheme will produce better precipitation forecast than the primary closure based on quasi-equilibrium assumption. The influence of the convection scheme is dependent on the upper limit of mass flux at cloud base. The total rain amount is not so sensitive to the limitation of mass flux in the strong convection case as in the weak one. From the comparison of two different methods for limiting the cloud-base mass flux, it is found that shutting down the cumulus parameterization scheme completely when the cloud-base mass flux exceeds a given limitation is more suitable for the forecast of precipitation.  相似文献   

Simulation of the equatorially asymmetric mode of the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 models     

Juan Feng  Jianping Li  Jianlei Zhu  Fei Li  Cheng Sun 《大气科学进展》2015,32(8):1129-1142

The tropical Hadley circulation (HC) plays an important role in influencing the climate in the tropics and extra-tropics. The realism of the climatological characteristics, spatial structure, and temporal evolution of the long-term variation of the principal mode of the annual mean HC (i.e., the equatorially asymmetric mode, EAM) was examined in model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results showed that all the models are moderately successful in capturing the HC's climatological features, including the spatial pattern, meridional extent, and intensity, but not the spatial or temporal variation of the EAM. The possible reasons for the poor simulation of the long-term variability of the EAM were explored. None of the models can successfully capture the differences in the warming rate between the tropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH), which is considered to be an important driver for the variation of the AM. Most of the models produce a faster warming in the NH than in the SH, which is the reverse of the observed trend. This leads to a reversed trend in the meridional gradient between the SH and NH, and contributes to the poor simulation of EAM variability. Thus, this aspect of the models should be improved to provide better simulations of the variability of the HC. This study suggests a possible reason for the poor simulation of the HC, which may be helpful for improving the skill of the CMIP5 models in the future.  相似文献   

Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xiangwen Liu  Tongwen Wu  Song Yang  Weihua Jie  Suping Nie  Qiaoping Li  Yanjie Cheng  Xiaoyun Liang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(8):1156-1172

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Niño3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.  相似文献   

Development and validation of an evaporation duct model. Part II: Evaluation and improvement of stability functions     

Ding  Juli  Fei  Jianfang  Huang  Xiaogang  Cheng  Xiaoping  Hu  Xiaohua  Ji  Liang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2015,29(3):482-495

This study aims to validate and improve the universal evaporation duct (UED) model through a further analysis of the stability function (ψ). A large number of hydrometeorological observations obtained from a tower platform near Xisha Island of the South China Sea are employed, together with the latest variations in ψ function. Applicability of different ψ functions for specific sea areas and stratification conditions is investigated based on three objective criteria. The results show that, under unstable conditions, ψ function of Fairall et al. (1996) (i.e., Fairall96, similar for abbreviations of other function names) in general offers the best performance. However, strictly speaking, this holds true only for the stability (represented by bulk Richardson number R _iB) range ?2.6 ? R _iB < ?0.1; when conditions become weakly unstable (?0.1 ? R _iB < ?0.01), Fairall96 offers the second best performance after Hu and Zhang (1992) (HYQ92). Conversely, for near-neutral but slightly unstable conditions (?0.01 ? R _iB < 0.0), the effects of Edson04, Fairall03, Grachev00, and Fairall96 are similar, with Edson04 being the best function but offering only a weak advantage. Under stable conditions, HYQ92 is the optimal and offers a pronounced advantage, followed by the newly introduced SHEBA07 (by Grachev et al., 2007) function. Accordingly, the most favorable functions, i.e., Fairall96 and HYQ92, are incorporated into the UED model to obtain an improved version of the model. With the new functions, the mean root-mean-square (rms) errors of the modified refractivity (M), 0–5-m M slope, 5–40-m M slope, and the rms errors of evaporation duct height (EDH) are reduced by 21.65%, 9.12%, 38.79%, and 59.06%, respectively, compared to the classical Naval Postgraduate School model.

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